Posted by
Mike Silverman on Tuesday, October 07, 2008 11:50:39 AM
It's crunch time with 4 weeks to go to the election. All the polls are favoring Obama. But here is what the polls don't show. According to Ramussen Reports ,the general voting public in July of 2008 was about 31.6% Republican, 39.2% Democrat ( a difference of 7.6%), with the rest claiming to be moderates. In August the numbers changed, 33.2% Republican and 38.9% Democrat ( a difference of 5.7%). The interesting trend is that since May of this year, the number of Democrats has steadily declined from a high of 41.7% down to the current 38.9%, while registered Republicans have increased over that same period from 31.6% to 33.2%. The shift in the differential of party affiliation since May is significant. In May the Democrats had a 10.1% advantage in ranks, as of now that has dwindled down to a 5.7% advantage. The trend in rising voter ranks leans to the Republican party. If every Republican party member votes on election day for McCain/Palin, the best that Democrat voters will be able to muster if all are on board with Obama is a 5.7% difference advantage. That leaves the moderates and independents and perhaps some swing voters in the Democrat ranks. In March of this year Gallup Poll reported that a very significant number of voters in the Democrat ranks stated that they would vote for McCain if thier candidate did not win the nomination. In surveying Independents who lean Democrat and Conservative Democrats they found ... "Almost 4 out of 10 voters in these two groups who support Clinton say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee." As recently as September 10th Independents alone were favoring McCain over Obama by 46% to 31% according to a Fox news poll. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the outcome in November if you don't allow yourself to buy into the "conventional wisdom" of the liberal press that wants this to be over right now and to anoint Obama as the next President.
In an investigation by the Pew Research Center they came up with the following analysis. The national press runs about 34% liberal and local press about 23% liberal for a total of 57% liberal press. Conservative press is about 7% nationally and 12% in local markets. NBC CNN CBS REUTERS all have liberal bents to thier reporting. They want Obama to win and will promote an Obama lead in the polling data as meaning the election is over and claim Obama to be victorious prematurely. But as they do that, they will prove themselves wrong. They always underestimate the drive of the Republican base when it's energized, and I am confident that it is. Whether you simply shudder at the thought of an Obama presidency, or are a full fledged McCain advocate, or even just excited about Sarah Palin bringing Conservative values to DC, there is only one poll that actually counts, the poll you officially cast your vote at in this November's election. Gallup Poll Data is at - ( http://www.gallup.com/poll/105742/Democratic-Groups-Most-Risk-Deserting.aspx )
- Mike Silverman